
The coming collapse of the US $
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Whether or not you live in America, you will be impacted by the coming collapse of the American dollar, which I expect to occur within a few years; if I were pressed to be more precise, I'd guess in about one 1/2 to 2 years. When the collapse happens, it will be as swift and dramatic as that within the housing market and everyone in the media will mutter, "Wow! I didn't see
that one coming." It will be true. The media is 'innocent' -- read 'ignorant' -- of economic principles and they
seem to believe in political promises. (I use the word
seem in order to give benefit of the doubt; perhaps they are merely toadies rather than incredible idiots.)
The collapse will come from two basic reasons or causes.
First (the long-term reason): the fed is and has been "monetizing" America's astronomical foreign debt; it has also been monetizing internal political crises -- e.g. the several bailouts that are only the beginning of many, many more. Monetizing = inflating the currency by printing dollars at a white-hot rate. Each dollar printed infinitesimally reduces the value of every other dollar in circulation; that is, it reduces the goods each dollar can purchase. The feds and other levels of government receive great benefit from the wildcat printing of currency because the immediate impact is
not inflationary; that is, the
first recipients of a new dollar are able to exchange it at the same rate as every other dollar. The impact of inflation takes time to filter down through society to reach the point at which an average Joe finds that a loaf of bread costs twice what it did a year ago. By the time bread has doubled or tripled or ???, the increase in the money supply has been going on for years; the politicians and other thieves have reaped the riches of being early recipients and the average Joe is stuck with dollars they've diluted.
Second (the more proximate reason/cause): foreign agents (governments, banks, individuals, etc.) who have purchased and held American dollars as a store of value and as a consequence of its status as the world's reserve currency are just starting to dump the Greenback.
A headline from USA Today states "Investors dump $89B in U.S. securities in historic fire sale." They are dumping $$$ for a range of reasons including an awareness that America's suicidal inflation reduces the value of each dollar
they hold, thus making dollars unattractive as a store of value. In turn, the unattractiveness is pushing the Greenback out of its traditional role as
the reserve currency of the world. Dollar dumping -- just like dollar pumping -- takes time but the former will be a faster process in terms of its impact. There will be a tipping point at which the collapse will come quickly.
The good news: you probably have a few years before inflation hits like a truck. You have time to get out of investments configured in American dollars (tho' all/most government-issued currencies are likely to be hit by the collapse); you can still convert Greenbacks into reasonably priced durable goods like gold or the car you'll need in a year or so. It will be those who save American dollars and who invest "in America" who will suffer the most.
Wendy McElroy
- Tuesday 13 January 2009 - 00:13:53
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